Jeg faldt over en artikel der handler om US Jobless Claims.. Og de har det med at være en ganske god rettesnor for hvad der kommer til at ske med Økonomien fremover. Det mest skræmende er nok denne udtalelse:
“When unemployment rises by more than 0.5% from its cycle low a recession generally ensues,”
Du kan også læse mere om hvad der sker når Credit Card Crisis udfolder sig
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Recession view
The jobless rate has risen 0.6 percentage points since March. “When unemployment rises by more than 0.5% from its cycle low a recession generally ensues,” wrote Robert Brusca of FAO Economics.
The weak jobs report puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve to act aggressively to prevent a recession. Earlier in the week, the prescient Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index fell below the break-even 50% mark, dropping to a nearly four-year low.
Ahead of the report, the Fed was expected to cut its overnight lending rate by a quarter- percentage point later this month to further stimulate the economy, which has slowed significantly with the collapse of the housing market and turmoil in the credit markets. The surge in unemployment could encourage the Fed to cut rates by a half-point.
“The risk stemming from this is that consumers who face debt constraints may not see income growth as strong in coming months,” wrote Stephen Gallagher, U.S. economist for Societe Generale. For the Federal Reserve, however, the need to continue offering support to the markets and the economy only grows.
However, the Fed’s hands are tied somewhat by worries about inflation, and the jobs report added to those concerns. Average hourly earnings rose 7 cents, or 0.4%, in December, more than the 0.2% gain expected. Earnings have increased 3.7% in the past year.
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